ABSTRACT
We assess the individual and compounding impacts of COVID-19 and climate physical risks in the economy and finance, using the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent model. We study the interplay between banks' lending decisions and government's policy effectiveness in the economic recovery process. We calibrate EIRIN on Mexico, being a country highly exposed to COVID-19 and hurricanes risks. By embedding financial actors and the credit market, and by endogenising investors' expectations, EIRIN analyses the finance-economy feedbacks, providing an accurate assessment of risks and policy co-benefits. We quantify the impacts of compounding COVID-19 and hurricanes on GDP through time using a compound risk indicator. We find that procyclical lending and credit market constraints amplify the initial shocks by limiting firms' recovery investments, thus mining the effectiveness of higher government spending. When COVID-19 and hurricanes compound, non-linear dynamics that amplify losses emerge, negatively affecting the economic recovery, banks' financial stability and public debt sustainability.
ABSTRACT
As a result of COVID-19 spread, Bangladesh implemented a range of measures including general holidays, lockdown, no lockdown, and strict lockdown which resulted in the dramatic ups and downs of the price level of the products. This study aimed to examine the influence of COVID-19 on poultry products (meat and eggs) in Bangladesh using Gazipur-an intensive poultry growing area - as a case study. Monthly market price data of poultry meat and eggs, and primary panel data from the same respondents using a random sampling technique through a structured questionnaire-based interview, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), and Key Informant Interview (KII) were collected. The results reveal that after the incidence of COVID-19, the price of poultry products at farmgate, wholesale and retail levels dropped drastically for the first three months (February to April 2020). Following that, the market price of farm (broiler) chicken and eggs increased by 40% and more than 30%, respectively. On the other hand, the price of local (deshi) chicken increased by 15%, which was already high on the market. However, in the early phase of COVID-19, many smallholder poultry farmers and hatchery owners were forced to shut down due to less demand/no demand of the product along with high feed cost and inadequate support from external sources. The government should provide financial support with low or no-interest rate to the smallholder growers in order to enhance their resilience against shocks like COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, etc.
ABSTRACT
In Bangladesh, Covid-19 has wrecked devastation on people's livelihoods and economies. It began with supply chain disruptions affecting a variety of agricultural products, particularly perishable ones. Onion, the most consumed species in Bangladesh and Asia is also fallen into that category. The goal of this study was to shed light on the current onion supply chain as well as the constraints faced by the actors in Bangladesh's major onion-producing area markets (i.e., Pabna, Rajshahi, and Chapainawabganj). The extent to which pre-existing constraints on market actors of onion were discovered and distinguished in pre-covid to covid conditions. The backward supply chain analysis revealed that the local market seller supplied the majority of necessary farm inputs (i.e., seed, seedlings, and fertilizer). Wholesalers, commission agents (aratdars), local wholesalers (beparies), and retailers were all involved in forward connecting. Producers received roughly 71% of the retail price (0.76/kg), followed by retailers (BDT 2.07/kg), wholesalers (BDT 1.22/kg), commission agents (aratdars) (BDT 0.85/kg), and independent wholesalers (beparies) (BDT 0.36/kg). Moreover, a constraint factor index and econometric analysis were utilized to determine the most critical constraints and their influencing factors. Obstacles to onion production and commercialization ranged from moderate (66%) to severe (33.5%), with a few being fairly severe (0.5%). The paucity of high-quality seed, the cost and difficulty of timely transportation, and the market's inaccessibility to government intervention were all significant drawbacks to increased onion output. The primary impediments to onion marketing were a lack of or inability to receive marketing expertise, frequent demand fluctuations, and an insufficient storage facility for other market intermediaries. The findings of the study can assist in establishing a dynamic policy framework that includes procedure for expanding market infrastructure, rehabilitating current onion market actors through adequate training, assuring information abundance, and rapidly addressing market mishaps for ensuring sustainability.